iPredict Picks is Hibernating

It’s time to announce that this blog is now dormant, ie. I won’t be adding more posts in the foreseeable future.  I started the blog on the spur of the moment, and now find that I have too little time to devote to posting iPredict stock picks.

The good news is, it’s easy enough to find your own stock picks – just look on iPredict and find stocks which are closing soon and trading over $0.80 or $0.95 cents (depending on your comfort with risk).  That’s pretty much what I did!

Also one last tip: spread your investments – remember, going all in on a single stock is sometimes a bad idea …

Good luck, and happy trading!

Stock Pick: Business Confidence Stocks

Here’s a totally risk-free stock tip:  the entire September Business Confidence bundle is underpriced.  The current price is $0.9686, and it’s gone as low as $0.96 today.

To help you keep track of the current aggregate price, I’ve made a small webpage which adds up the total price of all the stocks in the bundle.  It’s similar to the one I made for the Mayor bundle.

If you buy equal numbers of each stock in the bundle at these prices, you’ve got a guaranteed return (because one of the stocks will close at $1 on September 30).

Stocks:

CONFSEP09.MID

CONFSEP09.VLOW

CONFSEP09.LOW

CONFSEP09.VHIGH

CONFSEP09.HIGH2

Current Price:  $0.9686

Return:  3.2%

Term:  4 weeks (closes September 30)

Alternatively, you could buy the two most popular stocks in this bundle – CONFSEP09.VHIGH and CONFSEP09.HIGH2. It’s not a risk-free investment though. 

Current buy price:  0.9444

Return:  5.8%

Term:  4 weeks (closes September 30)

Disclosure: I am long 2035 of each of the stocks in this bundle.

Farrar’s Stock Picks

David Farrar is going to post a regular series of iPredict stock picks, which is good because I’ve been slack.  Check out the first one.

iPredict Facelift

The iPredict site has finshed undergoing a beautiful makeover and is now easier on the eye, sporting a very modern look.  Hopefully this will be the start of a relaunch, attracting more traders to jump in and experience the excitement of prediction markets.

Stock of the Day: August petrol stocks

With the close of the August petrol stocks coming up, here’s an obvious pick for you.

Stock:  91.AUG09.MID

Current Price:  0.945

Return:  5.8%

Term:  4 days

Stock Pick: Unemployment to decline in June 09

With the unemployment statistics for June due to be released tomorrow, and predictions by commenters pointing to a 0.5% rise in unemployment, there is some short-term money to be made in shorting the unemployment-decline stock for June 2009.

Stock:  UNEM.DECL.JUN09

Type:  Short

Return:  1%

Term:  1 day

Hat tip:  BKD.  You’re a gentleman and a scholar. 

Last-Minute Stock Pick: Australian OCR

The Australian OCR change (if any) will be announced shortly, and the massive favourite according to iPredict traders is No Change.  Hence a last-minute pick:

Stock:  RBA.NC.4AUG

Type:  Buy

Return:  2%

Term:  1-2 hours

Update: … and there it goes.  A 2% profit opportunity over 1 hour.

Stock of the Day: 91 LOW

The petrol stock period is almost over and it is essentially certain that the LOW stock will be the winner within a few weeks (when the MED releases petrol data).  This is a good opportunity to make a small but (virtually) zero-risk return over those weeks.

I suggest putting in a series of Buy orders around 0.96 / 0.97 / 0.98, to gather stocks at a good price from traders selling their positions to exit the stock and reinvest their cash elsewhere.

Stock:  91.JUL09.LOW

Type:  Buy Orders

Return:  3%-ish

Term:  2-3 weeks

Stock of the Day: OCR No Change

Closing tomorrow, OCR No Change is still a great buy.

Stock:  OCR.NC.30JUL

Type:  Buybuybuy!

Return:  7.5%

Term:  1 day.

Update:

This stock pick was proven correct just before 9 am this morning – that’s a 7.5% return in 17 hours. 

Stock of the Day: July Petrol Price LOW

The petrol price stock this month went through a dramatic drop from MID to LOW – which at least one trader picked in advance – but as the stock close approaches, things have stabilised.  I’m picking LOW as today’s stock of the day.

Stock: 91.JUL09.LOW

Type:  Buy

Return:  11%

Term:  2-3 weeks

Note:  To be really safe, you could buy VLOW as well.